The 2015-2016 English Premier League (EPL) season resulted in one of the unlikeliest of champions in professional sports history, Leicester City F.C. Starting the season as the 14th ranked club from the previous season, they emerged as champions in direct contradiction to a 5000 to 1 odds against estimate by bookmakers. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate whether 5000:1 odds made sense. This simulation used the 20 seasons of EPL play to empirical estimates of the points expected from a match when different preseason ranked teams played. This provided a basis for simulating a season of 380 EPL games. The results of this simulation suggest that the 5000:1 odds were reasonable. In addition, the finish of a preseason #1 team (Chelsea) as #8 at the end of the season was almost as unlikely as a preseason #14 rank team emerging as champion. In addition to this simulation, an extensive descriptive analysis and data visualizations study was produced.
having fun with data