Premier League Fantrax Waiver Wire — Weekly Picks with Insight Raise your hand if your gameweek got ruined by Sanchez’s red card against Manchester United. Estevao and Palmer were certainly victims, but as a United fan, I’ll take the win against Chelsea all day! Meanwhile, Dorgu is quietly turning into a fantastic fantasy asset, andContinue reading “GW6: The Draft Pick”
Tag Archives: arsenal
GW5: The Draft Pick
Premier League Fantrax Waiver Wire — Weekly Picks with Insight Last weekend was pretty low scoring across the Premier League with 10 teams getting clean sheets (Villa still looking for their first goal). That lead to defenders and goalkeepers making a big impact this weekend, which last weeks predictions highlighted! Also, One thing I thinkContinue reading “GW5: The Draft Pick”
Defying The Odds: How likely are we to see another team pull a ‘Leicester’ and win the EPL?
The 2015-2016 English Premier League (EPL) season resulted in one of the unlikeliest of champions in professional sports history, Leicester City F.C. Starting the season as the 14th ranked club from the previous season, they emerged as champions in direct contradiction to a 5000 to 1 odds against estimate by bookmakers. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate whether 5000:1 odds made sense. This simulation used the 20 seasons of EPL play to empirical estimates of the points expected from a match when different preseason ranked teams played. This provided a basis for simulating a season of 380 EPL games. The results of this simulation suggest that the 5000:1 odds were reasonable. In addition, the finish of a preseason #1 team (Chelsea) as #8 at the end of the season was almost as unlikely as a preseason #14 rank team emerging as champion. In addition to this simulation, an extensive descriptive analysis and data visualizations study was produced.